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Well, when a Herald Nielsen poll shows Julia Gillard in more trouble than the last Newspoll then you know it's curtains for Labor.
And that is exactly what has occurred today.
I see the latest Herald Nielson poll out today has Labor's primary vote at just 30% - a fall of 5% since the last poll in December.
The Coalition's primary vote is at 47%.
Two party preferred that puts the Coalition ahead of Labor 56 to 44.
A wipe-out for the Government.
What's more, this poll also finds Tony Abbott is now preferred Prime Minister and has a higher approval rating than Julia Gillard.
Support for Mr Abbott as preferred Prime Minister has jumped 9% to 49.
Support for Julia Gillard has dropped 5% to 45 and her approval rating has dropped 6% to 40.
Until now Julia Gillard's lead over Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister is what Labor strategists have used to justify retaining her as leader.
Nothing supports that argument now.
It must surely just be a matter of time before Kevin Rudd is invited to resume the leadership.
According to this poll, 61% of Australians prefer Rudd as Labor leader to Gillard.
The pundits are blaming the failed mining tax and the stench of corruption emanating from the Craig Thomson and Eddie Obeid scandals for the poor poll results.
The mining tax took out Kevin Rudd.
It may be about to take out Julia Gillard.